从三大技术趋势看中国的经济发展机遇

我所选取的这三大技术趋势正在为中国创造重大机遇。

它们分别是：

< >出数万亿台计算机和海量数据（以泽它字节计）；< >< >这些趋势为中国和中国公司带来了重大的经济增长机遇。

数万亿台计算机和海量数据

“现在全球计算机的数量超过人口” 1

如果我们将微处理器也计算在内，这个数量级就大得多了。每年制造的微处理器均超过100亿台，它们在微波炉、洗衣机、真空吸尘器、手表、汽车以及几乎所有您能想象到的家用设备和商用设备中得到了广泛应用。很多设备配置了数百个微处理器，其它一些设备甚至达到数千个。在这个世界，很快就会出现数以万亿计的微处理器节点。不过，虽然我们每年都制造数十亿台微处理器，但我们尚未确立在这些设备与节点之间共享和传输数据与信息的标准方式。想象一下，如果我们能够以一致的方式收集电冰箱、安全系统、微波设备、平板电视、汽车、供热系统以及其他家用设备的数据，并分析和传输此类信息，那将具有何等重要的价值。再想象一下，如果我们能收集此类信息，为每个家庭、每个经济区、每个省、每个村以及世界上每个国家所用，其价值又有多大。智能计量、智能家居、智能工厂、智能商务、智能城市和智能国家的实现也会水到渠成，届时对独特分离系统的需求将大大降低。

遗憾的是，尚没有任何标准架构能让我们利用这些海量信息节点的功能。相反，目前存在一系列混乱、分立且缺乏互操作性的协议，妨碍了信息的有效利用。可采用一套标准协议来取代上述所有协议。在信息收集和传输层方面获得领导地位的公司和国家，也将会在全球范围内享受明显的生产力和信息优势。

中国就有可能成为这方面的领导者

IBM的一项研究表明：2009年，全世界的数据量约为0.8泽它字节。2011年，这个数字增长到1.8泽它字节，且预计将在2018年底增长到35泽它字节，相当于4万亿部8GB的iPod。如此庞大的信息量必然需要进行管理和分析。

海量信息使您有机会为客户和公司分析和创造价值。信息经纪人是一个新兴行业，他们专门购买和出售信息，其中有很多信息曾经被我们视为私人信息。不管是谁，只要想要，都可得到我们的姓名、地址、信用卡记录、位置和其他多种私人特征数据。安客诚公司(Acxiom)就是一个实例。这家公司在全世界拥有5亿客户，平均掌握每名客户的1500条数据。安客诚公司通过分析客户的汽车型号、品牌和年份信息、收入和投资信息、年龄信息、教育背景信息以及其他数百个数据元素来预测3000种不同的品牌选择倾向。

由于数据爆炸以及数据管理和分析需求，目前正在不断开设一些全新的高级职位，如首席分析与数据管理官，以便为专业分析师以及负责档案和记录保存的专业部门提供支持。

因此，中国和中国公司面临一个重大机遇，可以通过下述方式发展经济：

● 为中国学生提供分析和数据管理工具与技术方面的教育、认证以及培训。中国正需要这类技术人员。另外，国际上还需要一些在预测分析工具和技术方面富有经验的专业技术人才。

● 提供公司、公众、社会和其他数据源的高级应用，以分析和预测客户行为并提供优越的客户服务和更好的产品。

移动通信运营商在世界支付系统中兴起

汇款支付系统正在经历快速变革。过去，支付过程由银行以及西联国际汇款公司（WesternUnion）这类转账机构控制。但是，以银行为中心的汇款系统只能为世界上的一部分人口提供服务。全球有25亿人没有开设银行账户，占全球成年人口的36%。全球只有50万个银行分支机构和14亿台ATM机。拿这些数字跟移动通信用户的人数比一比：世界上77%的公民——即30亿人——使用移动通信。例如，在巴基斯坦大约有1200万人——7%的人口——在海外生活和工作，但在巴基斯坦境内持有银行账户的人仅有100万。2011年，巴基斯坦有7000万移动通信用户。截至2013年底，这个数字预计将接近1.2亿。

显然，全球大多数人对移动通信的使用要超过银行服务，因此，在国际支付中，移动通信正在逐渐取代银行的地位。优利系统公司（Unisys）的一项研究表明：银行近45%的收入来自支付业务，占银行利润的40%。银行业无法接受在争夺汇款支付业务的战役中成为移动通信运营商的手下败将。全球范围内争夺国际支付业务霸权的战争正愈演愈烈。

中国有机会成为全球国际支付业务的领导者。要实现这一点，其中一种方式是使中国各银行、移动通信运营商和设备制造商之间的关系更加和谐稳固，以促进可互操作的全球性汇款支付。

世界金融市场和金融规则不稳定，需要强有力的领导力量

2010年5月6日下午2:30至3:00，美国股市在短短几十分钟的时间内下跌了600多点，创历史最大单日跌幅，8500亿美元的市值随之蒸发。突如其来的大跌之后，股市又突然开始反弹，并在接下来的20分钟里恢复到崩盘前的市值。这次反弹在道琼斯工业指数历史上创最大单日升幅。2010年5月6日也因此被称为“闪电崩盘”。近期分析证明：那次闪电崩盘是人工智能算法交易系统无意间统治了全球金融市场所导致的结果。算法交易系统执行股市高达80%的日常交易，所以交易活动的骤停会造成重大影响。现在思考一下，如果2010年5月6日的那次“闪电崩盘”不是发生在当天下午2:30，而是发生在美国股市收盘前的几分钟里，又会有怎样的后果。美国股市会以600点的跌幅收盘。鉴于这次暴跌没有公共领域方面的原因，东京的交易者们可能就会开始抛售，而这种下滑局面也将会继续保持，继而在2010年5月7日开盘之时，引发欧洲证券交易所和伦敦股市出现疯狂抛售的局面，最终导致世界金融体系的彻底崩溃。

我们侥幸躲过了一场全球性的灾难。

从那时起，监管机构就一直在探索如何在未来预防这种股市崩溃的风险。每个国家的监管机构采取的手段不同。在德国，正有人提议监管交易费用，并降低交易速度。澳大利亚证券委员会出台了针对自动化交易的市场规则整合草案，如果出现多次算法交易系统测试没有通过的情况，则将被处以100万美元的罚款。上个月，美国证券交易委员会发布了《证券合规性和完整性规则》（REG SCI）草案。这项草案长达377页，提出一系列针对算法交易过程、测试和合规性程序的规定。这些规定经过修改之后，预计会于2014年第一季度在美国正式实施，而且其他所有国家也有可能在美国的带领之下开展相关监管工作。

中国在这种全球市场环境下拥有怎样的机遇？

首先，中国也许能够提供帮助，促进在全球金融市场上建立一套更为协调和一致的监管政策，并在这方面提供建议。

其次，中国可以在构建和执行全球金融市场模拟计划的过程中发挥领导作用，并带领世界各国管理全球金融和系统性风险。

总之，我所描述的这三种技术趋势将会为中国带来竞争优势。这些优势为：

● 在设计标准协议的过程中发挥领导作用，以实现数万亿微处理器数据节点的互操作性和数据可移植性；

● 对分析和数据管理专业人员进行教育、认证和培训，这样既能创造就业机会，又能提高中国各公司的绩效表现，同时还能为中国工人在国际地区和跨国公司内提供工作岗位；

● 在中国的银行、移动通信运营商、其他国际性移动通信运营商、金融机构以及设备制造商之间建立和谐稳定的关系，从而在全球汇款支付系统中占据领导地位；

● 为全球金融市场的标准监管政策提供指导和建议，以提高稳定性；以及

● 在设计、构造和运行全球策略建模和预测模拟环境的过程中发挥领导作用，以协助管理全球金融系统风险。

感谢大家为我提供此次演讲的机会！

 

Economic Development Opportunities for China based on Three Technology Trends

 I have selected three technology trends that are creating significant opportunities for China.

These are;

The Trillions of Computers and Zeta Bytes of Data being Manufactured each year;

The Emergence of Mobile Communications Carriers in the World’s  Payments Systems;

The Instability  of World Financial Markets, Regulations and the Need for Leadership

Each of these represents significant economic growth opportunities for China and Chinese corporations.

Trillions of Computers and Zeta Bytes of Data

“There are now more computers in the world than there are people”1

 If we include microprocessors there are orders of magnitude more. Each year there are over 10 billion microprocessors manufactured that find their way into microwave ovens, washing machines, vacuum cleaners, watches, automobiles and almost every imaginable household and commercial device. Many devices have hundreds of microprocessors and some have thousands. We are rapidly approaching a world with a trillion nodes of microprocessors. However, while we are manufacturing billions of microprocessors per year, we have no standard way of sharing and communicating data and information between these devices and nodes. Imagine the value of being able to easily assemble data from the refrigerator, security system, microwave, flat screen TV, automobile, heating systems and other devices in the home in a consistent manner and analyse and communicate that information. Further, imagine the value of assembling that information for each household, each economic region, each province, country and for every country in the world. Smart metering, smart homes, smart factories, smart business, smart cities and smart nations become enabled as a natural consequence and the need for distinct separate systems becomes reduced.

Unfortunately, there is no standard structure allowing us to use the capabilities of these trillion nodes of information. Instead there is a chaotic suite of discrete non interoperable protocols preventing useful access to the information. All of these could be replaced with one standard protocol. The corporation and country that achieves leadership in this information assembly and transportation layer will enable significant global productivity and information advantages.

 China can be that leader

Research by IBM shows that in 2009, the world had about 0.8 Zeta bytes of data. In 2011, that number had grown to 1.8 Zeta bytes of data and by 2018 that number is expected to grow to 35 Zeta bytes which is equivalent to 4 trillion 8 Gigabyte iPods. This is an enormous amount of information that needs to be managed and analysed.

This large set of information provides the opportunity to analyse and create value for your customer as well as for your corporation. There is an emerging industry of information brokers that buy and sell information much of which we used to consider personal. Our name, address, credit card record, location and multiple other personal characteristics data are made available to whoever wants them. One example is Acxiom, a company that holds an average of 1500 pieces of data on each of 500 million consumers around the world. Axciom uses information about the model, make and year of your car, your income and investment, your age, education, and hundreds of other data elements to predict 3000 different propensities on how you might respond to one brand or another

As a result of the explosion of data and the need to manage and analyse that data ,new senior positions  such as Chief Analytic and Data Management Officer, supporting analytic professionals and archival and record keeping specialists departments are being created

Consequently, there is a large opportunity for China and Chinese companies is to grow the economy by;

Providing education, certification and training for Chinese students in analytic and data management tools and techniques. There is demand for these skilled workers in China. In addition there is international demand for skill technology professionals with experience in predictive analytics tools and techniques.

Providing superior use of company, public, social and other data sources to analyse and predict client behaviour and provide superior customer service and better products.

The Emergence of Mobile Communications Carriers in the World’s  Payments Systems

Remittance payment systems are being rapidly transformed. Payments used to be the controlled by the banks and the money transfer organizations such as Western Union. However a bank centric remittance system serves a fraction of the world’s population. There are 2.5 billion people in the world who do not have a bank account. This represents 36% of the adult global population. There are only 500,000 bank branches globally and 1.4 billion ATM’s. Compare these numbers to 3 billion mobile communications subscribers representing 77% of the world’s citizens. In Pakistan, for example, approximately 12 million people-7%-live and work overseas with only 1 million people in Pakistan holding bank accounts. In 2011 Pakistan had 70 million mobile subscribers and that number is expected to be close to 120 million at the end of 2013.

Clearly, most populations around the world have better access to mobile communication than to a bank thereby replacing Banks for international payments. According to a study by Unisys, nearly 45% of a bank’s revenue comes from payments which represent 40% of bank profits. Losing the battle for remittance payments to the mobile communications carriers is not an option for the Banks. There is a global battle for dominance in international payments.

 China has the opportunity to take leadership in global international payments. One way to do this is by harmonizing the relationships between its banks, mobile communications carriers and device manufacturers to facilitate interoperable global remittance payments.

The Instability of World Financial Markets, Regulations and the Need for Leadership

On May 6, 2010, in the period from 2:30 pm to 3:00pm, the US equity market dropped cover 600 points in the space of a few minutes, the largest inter-day drop in history erasing over $850 billion dollars of market value. Then, as suddenly as the downturn had occurred, it reversed and over the next 20 minutes returned to values just before the crash. This recovery was the largest one day gain in the history of the DOW industrial index. May 6, 2010 is now known as the “Flash Crash. Recent analysis has demonstrated that the Flash Crash is a result of the unintended consequence of the dominance of global financial markets by artificial intelligent algorithmic trading systems. Since algorithmic trading systems can account for up to 80% of all daily trades in the equity markets, the impact of a sudden stoppage of trading activity is significant. Consider for a moment what would have happened had the May 6, 2010 “Flash Crash” occurred not at 2:30pm that day but a few minutes before the US equity market closed. The US equity market would have closed down 600 points. With no public domain reason for the drop, traders in Tokyo would have started to sell and the slide would have continued followed by massive selling in the European bourse and London markets when they opened on May 7, 2010. The net result would have been the collapse of the World’s financial systems.

We narrowly missed a global catastrophic event.

Since that time, regulators have been examining how to prevent the risk of such a collapse in the future. Each country regulator is taking a different approach. In Germany regulations for transaction fees and slowing the speed of trading are being proposed. The Australian Securities Commission introduced draft market integrity rules for automated trading with $1,000,000 fines for any and multiple instances of unsatisfactory testing of these algorithmic trading systems. Last month the US Securities and Exchange Commission issued a draft of Regulations for Security Compliance and Integrity (REG SCI), a 377 page set of regulations for algorithmic trading processes, testing and compliance procedures. Adoption of these regulations, with some changes, is expected in the US for the first quarter of 2014 and likely every country in the world will follow the US regulatory lead.

What is the opportunity for China in this global market situation?

First, China might be able to help facilitate and provide advice on a more harmonious and consistent set of regulatory policies across the global financial markets.

Second, China can take leadership in the construction and operation of a global financial market simulation initiative and lead the world in managing Global Financial and Systemic Risk.

In summary, the three technology trends I have described create opportunities for competitive advantage for China. These are;

Taking leadership in designing standard protocols to enable interoperability and data portability for the trillion nodes of microprocessor data;

Creating jobs by the education, certification and training of analytic and data management professionals to enhance the performance of Chinese companies and to also create jobs for Chinese workers in international locations and companies;

Taking leadership for the global remittance payment system by integrating a harmonious relationship between Chinese bank, mobile communication carriers, other international mobile carriers, financial institutions and device manufacturers;

Providing guidance and advice on standard regulatory policies for global financial markets to enhance stability and;

Taking leadership in designing, constructing and operating a global strategic modelling and predictive simulation environment to help manage global financial systemic risk.

Thank you for your attention and the opportunity to speak to you.